From finance.yahoo: More than two years before the housing
bubble burst in 2006, economist Gary Shilling warned that subprime loans were
probably "the greatest financial problem" for the future U.S.
economy. In 2007 he said "housing would sink the economy," and a year
after that he warned of a "serious recession" that would consume most
of 2008. He was right every single time.
Now Shilling says a new recession has begun in the U.S. — in
the second quarter — following on the heels of the recession in Europe. He says
the current recession is different from previous ones because it wasn't caused
by rising rates or another housing downturn but rather a drop in consumer
spending due to a weak job market.
"We've had three consecutive months of declines in
retail sales," says Shilling, president of A. Shilling & Co., an
economic research and forecasting firm. "That's happened 29 times since
they started collecting the data in 1947, and in 27 of the 29 we were either in
a recession or within three months of it." Shilling expects this recession will last about a year and
shave about 3.5% from growth from peak to trough….
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