Lately, stocks have exhibited extraordinarily low volume as they
have grinded higher. Meanwhile, the
volatility index (VIX) has fallen to five-year lows, which has left analysts
wondering if complacency has set in. Perhaps.
According to businessinsider, all of
this means September will be more interesting.
Citi's Tobias Levkovich writes that historically September
is an underperformer. And there are some
reasons why. From his latest note to
clients:
September historically has not been kind to the stock
market. A review of monthly index performance shows that despite two market
crashes in October, the worst typical month for stocks has been September when
looking back 60+ years. The explanation may be that the third quarter is less
predictable than other quarters due to summer vacation-related corporate sector
downtime in the US and Europe (during July and August, respectively) leaving it
more dependent on the only full month of business activity which makes accurate
forecasting inherently more difficult……
Read more:
http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-september-has-not-been-kind-to-stocks-2012-8#ixzz249y6s12m
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