From BI Lately we've been closely following Eurasia Group analyst
Sean West (find him here on Twitter) who has been "dovish" all along
on the outcome of the talks. We asked
him after today's festivities whether he is still optimistic, and he says he
is, and that he puts the odds of a deal at "2-1."
The key development today, says West, is that Senate
leadership has brought other Senators into the fold:
I'm looking for a deal to be announced overnight or in the
morning. Leadership has now brought all
their members into the loop so they will have ownership and little reason to
complain about swift Senate action. The House is more of a wildcard but I bet
if the White House and Senate get a deal, The House will pass it and stop the
fiscal cliff before it starts.
Why does this matter?
The caucus briefings today were an opportunity for rank and
file Senators to be brought into the process and understand what each side had
put on the table. It's no longer a secret one on one negotiation; some members
might have had qualms about fast tracking the product of a totally private
negotiation. Now swift passage of any deal will be easier, at least in the
Senate.
And fundamentally, both sides really want a deal now...
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