When it comes to predicting a dark future, Nouriel Roubini –
the NYU economist who earned the moniker Dr. Doom after he correctly predicted
the financial crisis – is not about to let anyone get in his way. Even if it’s his host. And even, or maybe
especially, when there are 500 witnesses.
That’s precisely what happened Wednesday morning, when Michael Milken –
the former junk-bond king – shared the stage with Roubini at Milken’s Global
Conference.
What was billed as an interview in one of the Beverly Hilton’s
grand ballrooms had the feel of a pitched battle. Roubini warned of a massive oil shock following a potential
clash between Iran and Israel – or possibly the United States, sometime after
the November presidential elections. He
talked about geopolitical instability in the Middle East. “It’s a mess,” he
said.
Milken countered with a graph showing the U.S. has bigger
fossil fuel reserves than any other country in the world, and suggested that
natural gas, extracted from shale reserves that are largely outside the Middle
East, will eventually make Arab clashes irrelevant to energy.
Roubini: “I think people are a bit too optimistic about how
fast the shale revolution is going to occur…. I think people believe that in
five years from now we are going to be energy independent – I think they are
deluding themselves… I think it’s more
like a 10-20 year process.”
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