Brace yourself: you no longer live in the center of the Car
Universe. From the 1908 Ford Model T to,
oh, about three years ago, Americans enjoyed total automotive hegemony. The
U.S. was not only the globe's largest personal-vehicle market—almost 17 million
light-vehicle sales a year at its peak in 2005—it was also an unrivaled global
tastemaker. From tail fins to SUVs to rims to plug-in hybrid electrics, U.S.
auto makers and consumers have led the way. European and Japanese auto makers
set up design studios in Southern California to study the habits of the
inscrutable Yankee, with his Big Gulp and third-trimester belly. Proud
companies sold their souls to seduce American car buyers. A Porsche sport
utility (Cayenne), a Honda pickup (Ridgeline), a Ferrari with cup holders.
Nothing was sacred.
Now China is the dragon in the room. As of 2009, the country
is the world's largest light-vehicle market (sales in 2012 are estimated at
more than 18 million, compared with about 14.5 million for the U.S.), and the
fastest-growing. The prediction blithely bandied about here at the Beijing
International Auto Show was an annual car market of 30 million sales by 2020.
Meanwhile, the premium-car market is, well, erupting is the only word, with
predictions on the order of 15% to 20% annual growth for the next decade.
Western car makers, frantic to get their hooks into China's young and affluent,
are rushing into joint ventures with Chinese interests as fast as the ink can
dry.
This fantastic lurch into automobility presents many
questions, not the least of which is one of moral hazard. Automobiles are the
No. 1 priority for China's emerging middle class. Its government is plainly
pursuing a policy of pacification using millions of automobiles—cars that the
nation's infrastructure and environment cannot possibly cope with. Cars are
China's 21st-century opium…
Don't stop reading now. Go to http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304050304577378032548853036.html
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