From CNBC: Expectations of an end to ultra-easy U.S. monetary policy
are likely to set in during the second-half of 2013, triggering a bull run in
the dollar that could last for five years, says independent economist Andy Xie.
And this, he argues, could lead to a "crisis" in emerging markets as
hot money inflows unwind.
The U.S. economy has begun to show signs of life again -
with factory activity touching a nine-month high in January - prompting talks
about an end to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program.
Xie forecasts the dollar index – which measures the
performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies - will rise to 100
in the next three years, a 25 percent rise from current levels around 80 on
relative strength in the world's largest economy.
"The dollar bull market tends to trigger crises in
emerging economies. This time is likely to be the same," the former Morgan
Stanley economist said, citing the Latin American debt crisis in the 1980s and
the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997, during which a rise in the U.S. dollar
against local currencies led to a spike in interest payments on external debt….
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