CNBC’s Jeff Cox writes: With just 100 days left until the
U.S. presidential election, investors are beginning to make bigger bets on
which candidate will carry the day. One
analysis concludes that last week's sharp three-day market surge can only mean
that Wall Street is banking on a victory from Republican Mitt Romney.
That's the logical interpretation one can draw from a rally
amid conditions that otherwise would demand a selloff, Morgan Stanley chief
U.S. equity strategist Adam S. Parker said in an analysis that asserts there is
no other reason now to like stocks than a Romney win.
"The problem is that it’s impossible to be bullish and
right for the right reasons," Parker said in a note to clients in which he
reiterated his 2012 price target for the Standard & Poor's 500 at 1,214,
which would mark a 12 percent drop from the current level.
"Nearly every day someone expresses surprise that our
base case is for the equity market to be down by 10-15 percent. Why is this so
hard to believe? The market has had eight 10 percent down moves in the last 12
years," Parker said. "We think a better question is why more people
don’t forecast that the next 10-15 percent move is down than up?"
Read all about it at http://www.cnbc.com/id/48400076
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