From Bloomberg: Even the optimists now say openly that
Europe will only solve its problems when the alternatives look sufficiently
bleak and time has run out. Less optimistic people increasingly think that the
euro area will break up because all the proposed solutions are pie-in-the-sky.
If the latter view is right -- or even if concern about dissolution grows in
coming months -- markets, investors, regulators and governments need to worry
not just about interest-rate risk and credit risk, but also dissolution risk.
What’s more, they also need to worry a great deal about what
the repricing of risk will do to the world’s thinly capitalized and highly leveraged
megabanks. Officials, unfortunately, appear not to have thought about this at
all; the Group of 20 meeting and communique last week exuded complacency and
neglect.
Very few people seem to have gotten their heads around
dissolution risk. Here’s what it means: If you have a contract that requires
you to be paid in euros and the euro no longer exists, what you will receive is
unclear…..
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