I think 2012 will be a tough year economically across much of the globe, but the U.S. economy, while perhaps not thriving, will look good compared to Europe, China and Japan. U.S. stocks, meanwhile, will perform better than the underlying economy would warrant. That doesn’t mean the market will go up necessarily, but I predict it will perform more strongly than the overall economy. Also, since the 10-year treasury is yielding less than the S&P 500, money will flow from bonds to stocks, further stabilizing the market. But in the end, predictions are one thing and reality is another.....
1. Gold goes to $2,000 in 2012 - I think the euro will go down and people will start to pile into gold. It's where people obviously are feeling safe. I think it's good as long as it stays over $1,600. It's building a solid base.
2. The housing market stays depressed - The real estate market is all over the map. Obviously there are markets such as Florida, Arizona and Nevada that could continue down for a year two...or three. But some states that have large cities are starting a slow upward movement, such as New York. We still are looking at 2013 or 2014 at least till we stabilize everywhere, but that just means it has stopped going down in the most vulnerable states. Even if housing stabilized in the next couple of years, you're looking at 2023 before we even get back to viable real estate markets throughout the country.
3. Recession or stagflation - There's a 60 percent chance of 2012 recession. If no recession , stagflation will set in. It's either bad or worse when it comes to the economy in 2012, and most of that will be based on what happens in Europe....
Wait, wait...For more go to http://www.cnbc.com/id/45400672
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