Market pessimism is reaching a fever pitch, fueled by increasing belief that global policymakers either are powerless or inept when it comes to controlling the various headwinds confronting the economy. CNBC writes that with a bloody third quarter coming to an end and hopes that the final three months of the year will live up to their reputation as the market's best, now might be the time when confidence would be on an upswing.
But some of the market's top thinkers are releasing a chorus of dour predictions that, while allowing for the chance of a mild rally as 2011 closes, otherwise believe there is little reason for hope.
Bob Janjuah, the notably bearish fixed income analyst for Nomura Securities, believes that a market low is coming in October that could be followed by a late-year rise. But 2012 holds little but a bear-market roar that could take the Standard & Poor's 500 [.SPX 1112.52 -18.90 (-1.67%) ] all the way down to the 700 range—a numbing 38 percent drop from current levels.
"The basic problems remain weak trend growth in the (developed market) world, which we think will continue for another three to five years, the policy errors (in our view) of the current set of policymakers, and the existing set of inadequate 'old world' policy institutions," Janjuah wrote in an analysis for clients.
As for investors in such a climate, Janjuah says they "should remain cautious, and focus on strong balance sheets and strong/robust business models…."
If you've got the stomach for it, find out more at http://www.cnbc.com/id/44757716
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