The elephant in the room could be a 580-point drop in the
S&P 500 index, a leading hedge fund manager has claimed. Acccording to the
FT’s Simoney Girard Hedge fund consultant Michael Belkin, author of the
influential Belkin Report, has predicted a 40 per cent contraction in the US
stock market over the coming 12-15 months.
Talking to the Wall Street Journal’s Market Watch, Mr Belkin
said his forecasting tool suggests the US economy is being led into a recession
by Europe and a slowdown in Chinese growth.
He said: “The US is on the cusp of an earnings season that is going to
be a big disappointment. There have been 25 business cycle retractions since
1902 - and we are heading towards the next.”
Given latest figures for the S&P500, which FT data
stated was at 1450.94 as at time of writing, this could represent a fall of 580
basis points over the next year……
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